
Consider recent news from the social networking industry:
-Facebook now top social networking site in U.S. with 70.28 million users-MySpace lays off thirty percent of its workers to become "more efficient"I constantly challenge my students to identify the next game changer in any tech arena. When we talk about Facebook no challenger rises to the top. Instead, the conversation turns to "Facebook boredom". While this group remains in the minority more and more of my high school students are letting their Facebook pages go untended. Most have grown weary of the maintenance and Facebook's user-alienating interface changes. Just as they grew tired of only knowing someone through MySpace they are now weary of reading, and posting, status updates like, "I'm making toast."
While Gmail's user base of around 30 million is low compared to Facebook's numbers, it's safe to assume that many gmail accounts will utilize Wave initially. Any new Google product instantly benefits from a solid, existing user base. If the product is good (name Google's failures) then they will stick with it.
Wave users will benefit from a product that is not about socializing but communicating. The Wave preview doesn't give an impression of a service that is focused on posting party pics or generating short status updates. The latter may be a side benefit (watch out Twitter).
Google Wave may well incorporate the social organization WIN of Facebook while putting the user, not the community, in control of the communication. Facebook users may well look to Wave to reduce the noise and take control of their online communication in a functional, real time format.